A key indicator of the U.S. yield curve inverted on Thursday

Posted on January 31, 2020

The gap between the yield on three-month and 10-year Treasuries at one point slipped to as low as minus 2 basis points on Thursday. The spread — seen by some as a warning signal because it has inverted before each of the past seven U.S. recessions — last reached those levels as economic conditions deteriorated at the height of the trade war.

The inversion highlights broader market fears that the coronavirus and its human and economic threat could spread. The more that it does, the more likely it could start to alter consumer and corporate behavior.